Iran running out the clock on Trump? Expert Reveals IRGC Takeover Evidence

Summary

A fractured government in Tehran might be exactly why a deal with the United States is less likely. The key takeaway from recent events suggests a power struggle within Iran, potentially between the military and the clergy, with the Revolutionary Guard, the IRGC, appearing to gain influence. Evidence for this includes the prolonged absence of public appearances or statements from the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and a lack of transparency regarding the process of appointing a successor, despite constitutional procedures. Furthermore, other sons of Khamenei and his relative Kamal Kharrazi have also not been heard from, raising concerns about their safety. One conjecture is that the IRGC, originally formed to protect the revolution, now feels strong enough to rule independently, sidelining the clerical establishment. This theory is supported by a quickly removed social media post from a hardline, pro-clerical faction that questioned the source of current directives and explicitly mentioned a "coup." The discourse also highlights political infighting and accusations between factions. In this complex landscape, figures like Ghalibaf, despite his alleged corruption and survival amid potential threats, are seen by some as a potential front man for the real power, possibly figures like Zolqadr, head of the Supreme National Security Council. The situation is further complicated by external pressures, including the threat of naval blockades impacting oil exports, and the ticking clock of U.S. political deadlines. Both Iran and the U.S. appear to be engaging in brinksmanship, with Iran employing tactics learned from its history of negotiation and crisis management. The possibility of civil war within Iran is also a serious concern, driven by widening societal fissures and unresolved internal conflicts, while foreign intervention and proxy wars remain a significant risk.