🚨 OIL SPIKES Past $100 As Iran Deal Collapses! Nvidia BEATS But Stalls?! | My Trading Game Plan

Summary

Nvidia's earnings, though fantastic, failed to propel its stock higher, raising concerns about a potential market top signaled by the accelerated SpaceX IPO. Good morning. Here's a look at the market. Nvidia released strong earnings, but the stock remained flat, trading around $5.7 trillion valuation, which is near all-time highs. This lack of upward momentum in Nvidia is causing some selling pressure in other semiconductor stocks that had rallied in anticipation of its success. Meanwhile, oil prices have surged back above $100 a barrel. This is due to Iran's Supreme Leader stating that enriched uranium will not leave the country, creating a roadblock for a potential deal and pushing oil prices up. Consequently, yields have risen, and the stock market is expected to open lower today, showing hesitation and a slight pullback. Looking at the S&P 500, yesterday saw a gain, but a significant trend line is still a concern. The key question is whether we will see a new high, indicating a continuation of the bull market, or a lower high followed by a lower low, suggesting a rollover. This pattern will likely become clearer in the coming days. The NASDAQ shows a similar situation, with a long-term trend line being tested. We're watching to see if it makes a higher high or a lower low after a bounce. Institutions often use these simple signals like topping or bottoming tails to gauge market sentiment. Oil prices are significantly up today, especially after the Iranian leader's comments, and are staying above $100. The price action is forming an incredible wedge pattern, indicating that a large move, either up or down, is likely coming soon as pressure builds within the pattern. The 10-year yield is also bouncing, currently tied more to inflation driven by oil prices than long-term debt concerns. In terms of individual stocks, Nvidia is showing some weakness, trading down from pre-market highs. While there are potential day-trading opportunities around support levels like 216, swing trades are less clear at this point. Intuit is experiencing a significant decline, potentially due to AI impacting tax preparation services, but a strong historical support level around 300 could present a buying opportunity. Ralph Lauren, a high-end retailer, is showing strength, suggesting a divergence between the struggling 75% of the population and those who benefit from the stock market's performance. Day traders might look to short Ralph Lauren around 375, with a swing short opportunity at around 400. Deere is down slightly on earnings, but the chart shows a potential bear flag pattern that could lead to a much larger breakdown towards the 500 level if support is lost. Walmart is also falling, indicating that even consumers trading down are facing price pressures. A day trade opportunity exists between 118 and 119, with a potential swing trade around 100. IBM saw a pop on news of government supercomputer contracts, but the speaker is not chasing this move, suggesting caution for short-term trades. Quantum computing stocks like QBTS and Regetti are also seeing government attention. Rocket Lab is declining due to the impending SpaceX IPO, which is being moved up to potentially capitalize on current market conditions before a perceived top. Gold is struggling to hold a trend line, with a potential downside target of 4100 if it breaks below. Silver is also showing breakdown potential with a target of 66 to 64. Natural gas has pulled back from a target, and the speaker is now on the sidelines. Bitcoin is trading in line with risk-on, risk-off sentiment and is awaiting a breakout or breakdown from its channel.