David Rosenberg Isn’t Drinking The “AI Productivity” Kool-Aid

Summary

The top 10 stocks now make up over 40% of the market cap, a significant increase from the tech bubble era. Investors are becoming more selective in the AI trade, evaluating return on investment rather than a blanket "rising tide" approach. This shift is evident as some companies like Alphabet lead while others lag, indicating a more rational market recognizing true AI contenders. The economy shows imbalances, with technology capital spending booming while other business expenditures contract, and consumer spending is sustained by a declining savings rate and increased credit use, not organic income growth.