Market Insights: Bullish, Bearish, or Hogs?

Summary

In the current market, a nuanced approach is key, balancing bullish and bearish strategies to avoid becoming a "hog" that never takes profits. The S&P 500's daily RSI has remained overbought for a record 31 days, surpassing the previous 23-day record in 2018. Historically, such extended overbought periods have led to pullbacks, not necessarily market crashes, with a recent analysis showing a significantly reduced likelihood of recession by 2026. Looking at specific stocks, Palantir shows potential for an upside move, but a breakdown below $133.70 would be a sell signal. Poet's recent surge appears technically driven, a short squeeze, and needs new contracts with hyperscalers to sustain fundamental growth. Intel, despite a poor fundamental outlook, is exhibiting irrational price action; while shorting opportunities exist, holding overnight is risky due to potential manipulation and hype, with key support levels at $125, $120, and $116, and a potential gap fill down to $80 if these fail.