How Two Wars Could Trigger a Global Supply Shock

Summary

A regional war could become a global crisis if fighting disrupts the narrow routes carrying much of the world’s energy, food, and fertilizer. Professor Jang uses game theory to portray the United States, Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia as players pursuing security, influence, and survival under escalating pressure. He argues that conflict could spread from the Strait of Hormuz to Yemen’s Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Lebanon, the Suez Canal, and even the Russia-Ukraine front through the Caspian Sea. Closing Hormuz could threaten at least 20% of global oil supply, while disruption around Bab el-Mandeb could affect another 7%. Asian economies are especially exposed: Japan gets 3/4 of its oil from the Middle East, China 40%, and India 50 to 60%. Food risks matter too, although a claim that Russia and Ukraine supply one-third of global carbohydrates was corrected: together they historically supplied roughly 12% of internationally traded food calories and about 28 to 30% of traded wheat. Jang describes an “escalation ladder” moving from leadership strikes and blockades toward attacks on power plants and proxy warfare, while ultimately saying nuclear war is unlikely. He also links current policy to the 1996 “Clean Break” memo and Wesley Clark’s account of Pentagon plans after 9/11, but these broader conclusions remain interpretations rather than established proof of a coordinated master plan.