SpaceX IPO, Oil Deals, and Market Trends

Summary

The markets are anticipating a potential deal with Iran, which has seen oil prices drop to the mid-$80 a barrel. Today also marks the SpaceX IPO, with retail allocation reduced to 20% after institutional investors like BlackRock secured larger stakes at $135 per share. The speaker will not be buying the IPO, preferring to wait for price stabilization due to a lack of technical data. SpaceX is currently trading around $173 on the secondary market, and an opening price near $175 could make Elon Musk a trillionaire. The S&P 500 experienced a significant rally yesterday, with markets fully believing in an Iran deal, corroborated by oil's decline. However, the speaker suspects market manipulation, suggesting potential calls from influential figures to maintain market upward momentum before the SpaceX IPO. Institutional money needs retail liquidity to exit positions, and over $100 billion in retail funds are expected to participate. Following the IPO hype, the question remains if SpaceX will fade like Facebook did post-IPO. Oil prices are showing a slight rally today, potentially indicating that the Iran deal is not fully solidified, despite the overall bearish pattern observed in oil charts. Inflation remains a concern, with hot CPI and PPI data, pushing policymakers to lower oil prices to influence upcoming elections. The S&P 500 bounced precisely off a key trend line, but the market is exhibiting lower lows and lower highs, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Gold and silver also saw bounces but are still showing weakness, acting more like risk assets than safe havens. The 10-year yield is rising again as inflation persists, but the speaker questions how much of this is due to oil versus US debt. Gold's recent rally, mirroring the Nasdaq, is concerning, as it should act as a safe haven. Silver's industrial nature allows it to move with risk-on sentiment, making its bounce less alarming. Natural gas remains neutral, awaiting a break above the 200-day moving average. Bitcoin is showing potential for a short-term bounce towards $73,000-$75,000 if it clears $64,200, though the long-term outlook remains bearish. Space stocks are volatile, moving with the SpaceX IPO anticipation. AI stocks are dominating the market, accounting for over 40% of total market cap, influencing overall market direction. Microsoft and Google are showing potential for bounces after significant drops, while Adobe, despite beating earnings and revenue and raising guidance, is trading at multi-year lows, possibly due to CFO departure and AI-related software unease.